LIVE POLY
Donkey
$237.26
Bet $11.86 · Elite $23.73
live
LONG
THE FLOOR
2026-11-07 · jarvis=SimSim103 · trader=Sim101 · lab=Sim102 · demo=2178053+DEMO7501443 · scan 22h · protector 22h · pipe 16s · crosstrade
Untied DEMO9095460 from lab. Routes Sim102.
STABLE · STABLE — Tony Live + Simulation can take a book.
One shot. The open prints a lean on this line. BUY or SELL only when the 5-minute close clears 90%. That elite call is the 15-minute close over or under the target, and the line keeps the price. The swing holds until a finished minute after 10:00 is $100 through the open. Blend and Monte Carlo stay on the card. No order.
SHOTThe only order word on the card. BUY, SELL, or WAIT. WAIT means sit.
5m 75686 · best SELL 75% · over 25% · under 75% · blend sell 0.555The lean. It names a side before the 5-minute close, and it becomes the shot only when that close clears 90%.
to target -9 · dev -0.68 · edge +0.247 · Jev 0.140 · breaking downTo target is dollars from the open. Dev is that same distance in ordinary one-minute noise. Past 1 means the move already printed.
Swing · hold until price is $100 through the openSwing holds until a finished minute after 10:00 left is $100 through the open. A candle still printing does not count.
Open 75695 · blend wait · over 50% · under 50%The open is bitcoin at the start of this window. Over and under start even. 50/50 means that split has not picked a side.
Blend sell 0.555 · MC buy 0.570Blend is the card’s 15-minute side, from 0 to 1. Monte Carlo is a separate path count. The ticket price is in the Polymarket column.
Fade WAIT · +2 · -45 · +52 · open 75695 · mixed opens · watchFade looks at how recent windows finished through their opens. WAIT means this read is sitting.
Rechecked with 10:00 left · open was buyThe first pass of the window. The card takes one more look when 10:00 is left.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
3:00 PM–3:15 PM ET
TrendThe futures bar’s direction. Short points down. Long points up. short
ConfluenceHow many of the card’s reads line up, out of the scale printed. A partial stack is a sit if the other lines disagree. 2.0/5.5 spot
15m probabilityOne probability for the 15-minute side. Near 0.50 is a coin flip. 0.555
Monte CarloA path count. It stays on the card. The shot word is still the order. buy 0.570
MC buyThe path count split. Buy and sell add to 1. 0.570 · sell 0.430
EliteThe 15-minute close over or under the target, then that column’s running score. 69/84 · SwingThe swing column’s running score. The live swing word is in the shot block. 210/223
15m recordHits over marked windows. The log count is how many windows the card has written down. 1113/2229 · log 2239
EdgeThe card’s number minus the open price of that side. A few cents is a small edge. +0.050
Base lockA dash means this window has no base lock. The fraction after it is that column’s running score. — · 162/327
JevOne more probability on the card. The shot word is still the order. 0.140
MBT 15mThe micro bitcoin futures 15-minute bar. It can point the other way from blend and Monte Carlo. buy
Open upWhat the up ticket cost when the window opened. Up and down add to about $1. 0.495
Open downWhat the down ticket cost when the window opened. 0.505
Side openThe open price of the side the card is looking at. 0.505
Live upWhat the up ticket costs right now. 0.23
Live downWhat the down ticket costs right now. Under about 25¢, and especially 12¢ to 15¢, is a longshot. Up and down add to about $1, so a SELL stored near 0.85 bought this cheap side. 0.78
Waiting on this contractWaiting means this book is flat on this contract.
Today +$2.77
Won 1/1
Saved +$2.77
Live up 0.225 · Live down 0.775
LIVE POLY
$237.26
Bet $11.86 · Elite $23.73
live
Donkey calls · card LIVE · 1 closed · +$2.77. The open row moves with the market.
| WindowEastern time. Pacific is three hours earlier. | CallUp or Down, at the price of that side. | EntryThe price of that side when the order filled. | StakeDollars on the ticket. | PnLThe closed result. A small green can be a bounce while the window later finishes the other way. | Live fillThe same row, written as one line. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:45 PM–3:00 PM ET | Up | 0.580 | $11 | +$2.77 | — |
| CloseThe window that finished. | CoverB finished up. R finished down. | EliteOver or under the target, then hit or miss. | SwingThe swing word for that window, then hit or miss. | DecisionThe card’s 15-minute side for that window, then hit or miss. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:45 PM–3:00 PM ET | B | over hit | — | sell 0.607 miss |
| 2:30 PM–2:45 PM ET | R | — | — | sell 0.565 hit |
| 2:15 PM–2:30 PM ET | B | — | — | sell 0.599 miss |
| 2:00 PM–2:15 PM ET | R | — | — | sell 0.602 hit |
| 1:45 PM–2:00 PM ET | B | — | — | sell 0.579 miss |
| 1:30 PM–1:45 PM ET | B | over hit | — | sell 0.603 miss |
| 1:15 PM–1:30 PM ET | R | over miss | — | sell 0.544 hit |
| 1:00 PM–1:15 PM ET | B | — | — | sell 0.558 miss |
| 12:45 PM–1:00 PM ET | R | — | — | sell 0.540 hit |
| 12:30 PM–12:45 PM ET | B | — | — | sell 0.577 miss |
| 12:15 PM–12:30 PM ET | R | — | — | sell 0.575 hit |
| 12:00 PM–12:15 PM ET | B | — | — | sell 0.612 miss |
| 11:45 AM–12:00 PM ET | R | — | — | sell 0.575 hit |
| 11:30 AM–11:45 AM ET | B | — | — | sell 0.575 miss |
| 11:15 AM–11:30 AM ET | R | — | — | sell 0.570 hit |
| 11:00 AM–11:15 AM ET | B | — | — | sell 0.590 miss |
| 10:45 AM–11:00 AM ET | R | — | — | sell 0.594 hit |
| 10:30 AM–10:45 AM ET | R | — | — | sell 0.572 hit |
| 10:15 AM–10:30 AM ET | R | — | — | sell 0.610 hit |
| 10:00 AM–10:15 AM ET | R | — | — | sell 0.533 hit |
buy 1084 · sell 1145 · showing 20 of the last 20 · log keeps every card
Untied DEMO9095460 from lab. Routes Sim102.
| Desk | Fires now |
|---|---|
| Plant A | 2178053 + DEMO7501443 |
| Safari | SimSim103 |
| Trader | Sim101 |
| Tickets | Sim102 |
Eye is the index vote. Green long. Red short. Amber waits to confirm. Bar is 5m volume.
Tap a school for its chart. Over is the whole house, live.
House prospectus. Day / week / month across Plant A, Safari, Trader, Tickets.
Plant A: week -$166.95 · month -$166.95
Safari: week -$597.05 · month -$597.05
Trader: week -$18.25 · month -$18.25
Tickets: week -$1,410.25 · month -$1,410.25
House day n/a · week -$2,192.50 · month -$2,192.50
| Fills | Closed | Net | Hit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day | 0 | 0 | n/a | n/a |
| Week | 173 | 198 | -$2,192.50 | 41.3% |
| Month | 187 | 198 | -$2,192.50 | 41.3% |
Green fires Tony DEMO. Yellow waits. Cash stays parked.
| Symbol | Side | Entry | Target | Wait |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNQ | LONG | 27107.25 | 27425 | yellow |
| MES | LONG | 7404 | 7437 | green |
| M2K | LONG | 2761.1 | 2769.4 | green |
| MGC | SHORT | 4079.8 | 4067.5 | yellow |
| MYM | LONG | 51387 | 51642 | yellow |
| MCL | LONG | 90.37 | 91.17 | yellow |
| MBT | SHORT | 76045 | 75775 | yellow |
Open $ marks off the 15s pipe last. Tick is live last vs entry.
| Book | Desk | Sym | Side | Entry | Stop | Last | PnL | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donkey LIVE$D n/a · W n/a · M n/a | Plant A | FLAT | ||||||
| Donkey DEMOD n/a · W -$446.10 · M -$446.10 | Plant A | FLAT | ||||||
| Donkey Sim101D n/a · W -$18.25 · M -$18.25 | Trader | FLAT | ||||||
| Donkey Sim102D n/a · W -$1,410.25 · M -$1,410.25 | Tickets | FLAT | ||||||
| Donkey Sim103D n/a · W -$597.05 · M -$597.05 | Safari | FLAT | ||||||
| Book | Desk | Sym | Side | Entry | Stop | Last | PnL | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony LIVE$D n/a · W $279.15 · M $279.15 | Plant A | FLAT | ||||||
| Tony DEMOD n/a · W n/a · M n/a | Plant A | FLAT | ||||||
| Symbol | Bias | Long | Short | Score / gate | Heat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNQ 12-26 | short | 1.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 / 7.8 | sit |
| MES 12-26 | short | 2.0 | 6.6 | 6.6 / 7.8 | sit |
| M2K 12-26 | long | 4.6 | 2.5 | 4.6 / 7.8 | sit |
| MGC 12-26 | long | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 / 7.8 | sit |
| MYM 12-26 | short | 1.3 | 5.8 | 5.8 / 7.8 | sit |
| MCL 12-26 | short | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 / 7.8 | sit |
| MBT 11-26 | long | 3.3 | 1.3 | 3.3 / 7.8 | sit |
Nets are closed broker tickets. Missing file = n/a. Does not PlaceOrder. Tape wait is yellow/green. Last from the 15s pipe; locks from the 5m snap.